What's Going On With Augur: Price Analysis (Part Two)


4 min read
What's Going On With Augur: Price Analysis (Part Two)

For this price analysis, we're going to start on the daily resolution.

We'll also be using Kraken's USD markets as our frame of reference for the price.

Augur Price Analysis

In the chart below, we can see a strong underlying diagonal uptrend support that's been carying the price for a weeks (at least):

Multiple Support Point Touches

If we map out all of the 'bounces' that formed the underlying diagonal uptrend support that the $REP price is currently riding on, we should end up counting at least seven touches, altogether on the daily resolution (which is pretty significant):

Recent Explosion in Price Action

While the price action of $REP over the past few weeks (dating back to late March / early April) has been spectacular, it appears that the price has really taken off over the past 24 hours or so.

See below:

Specifically, the OHLC shows us a gain of +22% for the last period alone, which is extraordinary.

Looking For Overhead Resistance Points

Given the situation that we're in (a 'runaway train' asset), our first course of action is to see if we can identify any potential 'momentum stoppers' (i.e., overhead resistance points that we have failed to account for).

To do so, we're going to start with those that we can visibly see on the chart first.

Swapping to the Weekly Resolution

Since Augur's price action has vastly outperformed prior localized 'highs', we're going to swap to the 'weekly resolution' to get a better idea of what long-term, chart based  overhead horizontal resistance points may exist (that can serve as potential impediments to the price).

See below:

It actually appears that the price of Augur has broken through the most recent overhead horziontal resistance.

Next Potential Overhead Resistance Point

Staying on the weekly resolution here, the next overhead resistance point (above the one that Augur just shattered), doesn't come into play until the $30 range.

See below:

Librehash Double Guppy Channels

The double guppy channels were created as a means of reconciling the Donchian Channels with the 'CM Guppy' to provide a more helpful, encapsulating gradient channel for the price that would reflexively provide users with a sense of 'expected' price action versus 'extremes'.

Below we have this indicator applied on Augur:

What This Means

In short? Impending consolidation.

Whenever the price falls too far to the north / south of the Double Guppy Channels, there is typically a correction (normally the price does not exist too far in the 'red' or 'green' zone without either correcting by moving sideways or performing an outright "reversal").

The two outer edges of the Double Guppy Channel are re-calculated every period, either widening or narrowing contingent on former price action.

Thus, when the price action (at a given moment) is higher than the highest moving average dictated by the indicator (i.e., the candle has almost 'escaped' the north side / south side of the indicator), that means that the price action is exhibiting behavior that exceeds the indicator's most optimistic scenario (which is extremely bullish).

The indicator was tuned so that a performance that extraordinary (bullish or bearish) would indicate impending 'correction' in the market, since extreme conditions rarely persist for too long in a market context.

Taking a Look at Momentum Indicators

At this point, there's nothing else for us to do other than look at other momentum indicators to see if there are any signs of impending divergence.

Librehash RSI

See below:

RSI couldn't be more bullish here.

Librehash Balance of Power RSI

This indicator also could not be more bullish.

Librehash Volatility RSI

The chart above shows the asset's (Augur) volatility and price action increasing (more wild moves headed upward).

This Analysis Was Mostly Performed On the Weekly Resolution

It isn't too uncommon for us to see extraordinary indicator readings on the daily resolution (or smaller time frames), but it isn't often that these 'extremes' are witnessed on the *weekly resolution.

We're Already "In"

The price action for this asset is so bullish at this point, that we had to declare our intent to enter into a position before the price analysis itself was published at ($24.84; which was already inflated as is).

Our R/R For This Trade:

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