Brief Crypto Market Analysis - April 2021

Market Analysis Apr 29, 2021

If you're reading this with a pulse, then you've probably noticed the spontaneous, furious bullish surge gripping the entire blockchain industry as of late.

But just in case you haven't, let's take a quick look at the trajectory of the price data over the past few days.

Analyzing the Fluctuation in Crypto Market Cap Over the Past Few Days / Weeks

In the above image (from Crypto Market Aggregator, CoinCheckup), we can see that the total market capitalization for the cryptocurrency space was hovering around $1.815T on April 25th, 2021.

However, now at the time of writing (0400 UTC ; April 28th, 2021), the space's total market capitalization is hovering around $2.132T.

That's a total increase of +17% in a little over two days (face-melting).

Figuring Out WHERE the Money Went

While it is fascinating to remark on the overall inflation of the crypto space over the past several dozen hours, this provides us with no clear benefit / insight if we're looking to capitalize on this recent surge in the markets.

However, figuring out where the money is piling into, will help...exponentially in certain cases.

First Stop - Viewbase

'Viewbase', is an excellent, independently operated, free site that tracks the overall exchange inflow / outflows of various cryptocurrencies.

Their site can be found here.

ViewBase: Digital Assets Analytics for Cryptocurrency Traders
Digital Assets Analytics for Cryptocurrency Traders. Data for analyzing exchange wallets, futures, options, and margin.

Analyzing Overall Exchange Inflow / Outflows For Top Assets

Before we zoom into to check out some of the more 'granular' information on these inflow/outflows (i.e., examining how much each respective exchange contributed to the overall inflow/outflow totals), we're  going to go perform a topical overview of this data point.

See below:

The screenshot above should be considered a 'sample' for readers to examine and 'acclimate' to.

The next one is not a sample ; we're going to critically evaluate the data that gets returned on the 30-day lookback (vs. the 1-day above).

See below:

Few Points of Observation Worth Noting

  1. According to Viewbase, there was an exodus of over $2.8 billion worth of $ETH in that 30-day span (which is interesting).
  2. >43.2% of all USDT was removed from exchanges during that time period as well (this is really curious)
  3. 10.79M Chainlink tokens disappearing from the exchanges is really worth peering into
  4. Binance Parking >$690 million worth of BUSD on their exchange is definitely worthy of attention.
  5. Nearly $1 Billion worth  of '$FTT' (FTX's Exchange Token), left exchanges during this period as well (accounting for a -44.5% change in the total supply that was on exchanges)
  6. Its no secret that $MATIC has been going crazy lately (really fucking crazy); so seeing >$159M in outflows is definitely a metric worthy of attention.

(not included in the screenshot above): It appears that 11.8M Sushi tokens were moved to exchanges over this period as well [37.7%+ increase in the total supply on exchanges for that time period]

Second Stop - MVIS Indices

MVIS is a site that provides multiple different curated indices. We're going to look at the breakdown of the T100 first before moving forward.

Below is a quick look at the MVIS Indices:

MVDA = Top-100

MVDALC = T100 Large Caps

MVDAMC = T100 Mid Caps

MVDASC = T100 Small Caps

Below, we're going to take a look at the indices over the past few days:

As we can see from the chart above, the biggest winner among the four index groups mapped were the small caps.

Specifically, the small caps gained +17.66%. The mid-caps and large-caps trailed by a decent amount though, clocking in 11.39% and 8.99%, respectively.

For more up to date data, let's go ahead and take a look at the market's progress from April 22nd, 2021 to April 29th, 2021.

The rankings are interesting here; below is the delta for each index:

Small caps are 5.43%

Mid caps are 1.97%

Large caps are -1.15%

Now let's go and check out the delta of each index over the past 24 hours:

From the chart above, here is the index performance breakdown:

Small-caps are up +6.97%

Mid-caps are up +3.22%

Large-caps are up +2.74%

Biggest takeaway here is that small-caps, once again, are killing it in the market.

What Are the Small Caps?

Up to this point, everything that you've read above has had limited usefulness because the constituents of the small-cap index have not yet been revealed.

So let's take this opportunity to do that now (see below for the full list + adjusted weights):

PancakeSwap - 5.95%

Polygon - 4.90%

Ethereum Classic - 4.65%

Thorchain - 3.96%

Compound - 3.60%

ZCash - 3.14%

Decred - 3.14%

Holo - 3.11%

Stacks - 2.74%

Decentraland - 2.68%

Enjin Coin - 2.66%

Hedera Hashgraph - 2.61%

NEXO - 2.42%

Waves - 2.37%

Siacoin - 2.15% - 2.14%

DigiByte - 2.11%

Basic Attention Token - 2.10%

Near - 1.95%

Theta Fuel - 1.91%

UMA - 1.72%

DefiChain - 1.71%

Celsius Network - 1.70%

TerraUSD - 1.70%

Fantom - 1.69%

QTUM - 1.63%

Bridge Oracle - 1.63%

Ravencoin - 1.62%

Ontology - 1.59%

ICON Project - 1.56%

0x - 1.53%

Harmony - 1.46%

WhiteCoin - 1.39%

SwissBorg - 1.35%

Bancor Network Token - 1.34%

Reserve Rights - 1.33%

Revain - 1.30%

ECOMI - 1.25%

OMG Network - 1.22%

Okex - 1.21%

IOS Token - 1.17%

Celo - 1.15%

Voyager Token - 1.12%

Thorecoin - 1.10%

REN - 1.00%

Pundi X - 0.93%

Paxos Standard - 0.93%

Curve DAO Token - 0.92%

renBTC - 0.78%

BitMax Token - 0.69%

Peaking at the MVIS Factsheet

The factsheet is available on the MVIS website as a pdf, but since its only one page, a screenshot of the relevant information is provided below:

Top performers over the past day are Thor, Ontology, and Basic Attention Token (an interesting collective; worth taking note of Ontology's lackluster performance YTD compared to the other two candidates on the list).

Conclusion and Takeaways

As we can see from the data above, the entire market (overall) remains bullish. There are still several assets that are well in the positive for the month of April, even in spite of the massive dip in market cap that we saw earlier (i.e., circa April 17th - 24th/25th).

However, it is strongly worth noting that the majority of cash inflow has went to the "small cap" members of the T100 (as categorized by MVIS).

For those looking to make the best investments possible, it would be smart to enter placements in components that are listed within the MVIS small-cap index.



Happy to serve and help wherever I'm needed in the blockchain space. #Education #EthicalContent #BringingLibretotheForefront

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