While there's been a lot of craziness in the markets (in general) over the past week, one project that's managed to stand this great market test has been none other than Monero.
Yes, Monero. That privacy coin that's being "de-listed" from exchanges all over the world and targeted directly by the federal government.
Librehash has stated numerous times that Monero would stand the test of time in situations like this. But for those that have missed those breakdowns, we're going to do so again (briefly) in this piece.
Why Monero Has Been Considered a 'Reserve' Currency in the Space
- Our first clue lies in the fact that Monero is hardly traded on any exchanges. That tells us that the price of Monero is not as susceptible to market fluctuations and manipulation as other currencies that are on all of the exchanges would be (you can apply the logic in this statement to many other projects as well).
- In addition, Monero uses a 'Proof of Work' mining consensus, which means that the currency is minted at regular intervals (2.5 minute target block time) vs. the supply existing in the hands of a cabal of 'developers' or 'team members' at the top (at least one would hope so). And if that isn't the case, then (it appears) there's at least an opportunity for the remainder of the minted supply to be doled out in an equitable manner.*
*Quick Note: Use of the term 'equitable' here does not denote egalitarianism (i.e., everyone has an equal share of the pie), but rather that miners should be able to acquire more XMR in accordance with the total work / resources they've dedicated to the network.
Monero's Gains Over the Past Week
As we'll see in the chart below, from April 8th through the 21st, Monero gained >58.72% (which is remarkable in comparison to the rest of the market):
Let's compare this action with BTC's trajectory over that same time frame.
Taking a Look at Index Performances
Let's start by looking at the Bitwise Index.
Below is a chart plotting the activity in that index from April 8th - 21st:
Quick Look at the Entire Crypto MarketCap (Including BTC) From April 8th Through the Dump
Check out the chart below:
What This Tells Us:
- The entire market cratered, not just one specific niche / sub-genre of cryptocurrencies.
- The drawdown was severe (-15% total decline for the entire crypto space, in terms of market cap ; >$600B wiped from its height down to the lowest point [yes, over half a trillion dollars in value])
Illustrating Point #2:
Additional Notes on Monero
Its no secret that Monero is one of the primary drivers of 'darkweb' transactions. But when it comes to evaluating its price trajectory, it doesn't matter whether one feels darkweb transactions are 'legitimate' or not.
According to 'TechRepublic' (among many other sources), CyberCrime rakes in an estimated $1.5 trillion per year.  While Bitcoin still remains more popular than Monero (most likely due to ease of usage & availability), Monero has grown in popularity on the darkweb in response to a marked increase in law enforcement use of on-chain analysis as a means of uncovering the recipients of illicit funds.
Quick Note: The term 'illicit' here refers to the perspective of the government entity performing the analysis; the author of this report proffers no opinion on the legitimacy / ethical substance of the transactions taking place
Given Monero's stability, effectiveness as a means of payment, and consistent demand (especially when considering the marked increasse in cybercrime since the advent of COVID19), it is likely that this currency will continue to increase in value.
The fact that it is in such high demand (consistently) means that it will continue to be readily available for those that need it (and are willing to pursue the necessary ends to obtain it). So exchanges refusing to list the currency or make it available for purchase should have no material impact on its price for the foreseeable future.