Litecoin Price Analysis: Traded Channel Bouncing


4 min read
Litecoin Price Analysis: Traded Channel Bouncing

Being entirely honest here - it is difficult to gauge what Litecoin's future price trajectory will be from just glancing at their chart.

See below:

Their price action has been largely ambiguous (on the daily resolution) for the past few weeks.

So, in an effort to see if we can gather a better idea of the long-term underlying trend forces at work for Litecoin's price, we're going to go ahead and take a look at Litecoin on the weekly resolution (temporarily, for the time being).

Litecoin (Weekly Resolution)

See below:

Quite frankly, things simply do not look good for Litecoin.

But then again - why would it? With the project failing to provide anything of value to the blockchain space over the past few years (or perhaps, ever) in addition to a 'founder' that has (perhaps, rightfully), earned the scorn of the larger blockchain space for publicly announcing that he would sell his stake of Litecoin at a time when the price was at its most inflated point (while also refusing to divulge just how many Litecoin were sold) - fundamental optimism of any sort for Litecoin has went out of the window.

Maximum Upside Move for Litcoin

In the chart belowe, we identify what the maximum upside potential (more than likely) for Litecoin would be.

To get an idea of the delta of such a move from where the price of Litecoin stands at right now at the time of writing, see below:

While 61% may seem like a tremendous upside (and undoubtedly it is), we must consider that this is the maximum upside move and that such a move would more than likely not be linear.

Shrinking Back Down to the Daily Resolution

Below we've shrunk back down to the daily resolution to take a look at the RSI(14) for Litecoin going forward.

See below:

The lines in the RSI chart above are both red and green as they were programmed by us (Librehash). These lines are formed as a result of taking the EMA(9) of the RSI(14) as well as the RoC [Rate of Change] of the EMA(9) of the RSI(14) over 5 periods and juxtaposing them on the same chart together.

We then programmed our indicator with conditional logic that turns the color of the RSI green whenever the EMA(9) of the RSI(14) crosses above the Rate of Change (5) of the EMA(9) of the RSI(14).

Logic Behind This Decision

In programming our RSI indicator in this manner, we were able to account for the momentum behind the change in RSI values from one point to another - rather than being forced to settle for the two-dimensional analysis that the RSI(14) forces on to make form the face value metrics provided by the chat.

What We Can See With Litecoin

For Litecoin, beyond the fact that the RSI(14) [using our backend indications] has signaled that the momentum of the price is sliding in the opposite direction (that's what the RSI tracks - momentum), there is reason to believe that this backslide is only just beginning.

However, at this point, it is a bit too early to make any definitive assessments regarding the RSI(14) for Litecoin on the daily resolution.

Balance of Power RSI (another custom indicator)

Let's check out what the Balance of Power RSI says for Litecoin below:

Again, bearish like the RSI(14) was.

More Complete Chart Analysis for Litecoin

We're going to stick with the daily resolution for Litecoin for our assessment.

In the picture below, we can see that:

A) The volume for Litecoin April 29th, 2020 to this point (mid-June 2020)

B) There is a solid horizontal support that exists at $42.

There is also an overhead horizontal support at $47 that exists as well.

End Result = Channel Trading

As we can see fomr those two charts above, the end result here has been that Litecoin is stuck between two two nearby support & resistance points (respectively), creating a confined space for trading (and thus, consolidation / sideways movement).

Traded Channel Produces Bounces From Resistance to Support Point and Back Again

Which Direction Will Litecoin Go Into Next?

Assuming there is another bounce from the underlying support point (which Litecoin is hanging at currently), then the upside of that movement will more than likely be >11%.

Here it is:

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