Ethereum's price analysis is a bit convoluted when considering it in context of Bitcoin.
Usually Ethereum moves in and out of 'cycle' with Bitcoin. In other words, there are times when the price is coupled tightly with Bitcoin and other times when it is decoupled.
As mentioned before, when Ethereum had hit its all time high back in January 2018. This was during a time when Bitcoin was on its descent from its then ATH of $20k back in December '17.
Bump and Run Reversal Chart Pattern
This chart pattern was given to us by the great Thomas Bulkowski, a famous technical analyst that wrote an entire compendium on different chart patterns and indicators that he had uncovered after studying decades worth of data from the stock market (this guy has some of the best material out there on planet earth; bar none).
Here's what the actual pattern looks like:
A better graphic from 'stockcharts' is shown below:
This pattern has played out countless times in the crypto space, which makes me a bit wary when seeing it now on the Ethereum chart:
There is a non-zero chance that the price follows the age old wisdom of the bump and run reversal, leading to a crash below the immediate underlying support as well as the longer-term support below that:
Beyond that the volume looks a little iffy for Ethereum (depicted by the bars at the bottom of the chart).
Here I'm going to break out some indicators that haven't seen a lot of use in our charts (because I don't want people to just solely trade from these indicators). But in a long, flowy & trendy market like the one that we're in currently, its definitely worth taking a closer look.
Check out the Librehash Whale Catcher on this chart:
One could say that it damn near caught everything that got thrown at it...with accuracy, which is pretty impressive.
Every exit & entry was on point here just about with slight variation.
Librehash Price Bands (Weekly Resolution)
The price bands show a remarkable level of accuracy on the weekly resolution (so much so to where it may be worth heeding the warning that its giving here on the last period (when the line turns red, that's when the trend is bearish; it also colors the candles too whenever they fall outside of the bands):
Other things to note here about the bands:
A) The middle line (the one changing from green to red / vice versa) is also a support / resistance point [contingent on whether the price is above or below the line]; so keep that in mind
B) Almost without fail, if a candle is outside of these bands, you can bet your bottom dollar on a reversal. This could turn out to be wrong at some point, but based on what I've seen, this has never not been the case (works on all time frames to my knowledge). Be warned that this does not tell you how long said reversal will be and this is a hell of a lot more effective as a tool on the shorter time resolutions than the bigger ones like the weekly / monthly)
Underlying Support for Ethereum
We're going to 'zoom back in' to the daily resolution:
The red arrow in the chart above symbolizes the break above the ascending triangle (flat top) chart formation that we had identified previously:
What was written above was only FYI.
Because overall this is a do not enter for us, so that's exactly what we're going to do.