Dissecting Litecoin's Recent Price Surge

Price Analysis May 11, 2021

For those that have been paying attention to the overall blockchain markets from at least the beginning of April 2021, you likely have noticed Litecoin's abrupt, yet extremely stable ascent over the last couple of weeks.

For those that have been 'asleep' during the awakening of this beast, there is no need for alarm because this article will not only get you up to speed on what's going on, its also going to posit a few credible theories for why Litecoin has been appreciating in price so much over the past few weeks (and some of these answers may surprise you).

Evaluating Litecoin's Recent Price Action

Below is a price chart that shows the total appreciation (in USD) per Litecoin from March 26th, 2021 to present time (May 10th, 2021):

As the chart above shows, Litecoin has appreciated by a total of approximately +135% per unit in a little over a month.

This price performance makes Litecoin one of the standouts among the T10-15 cryptocurrencies (via marketc capitalization).

Below is a chart from 'coincheckup' (website), that shows the total delta for Litecoin's price over the past 3 months as well as the past month (fourth and third % columns, respectively).

See below:

As shown (and not shown) in the picture above, over the past 30 or so days, Litecoin's performance has beat out the following cryptocurrencies:

  1. Bitcoin ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  2. Binance Coin ($LTC beats it over the past 30 days)
  3. Cardano ($LTC beats it over the past 30 days)
  4. Ripple ($LTC beats it over the past 30 days)
  5. Polkadot ($LTC beats it over the past 30 & 90-day periods)
  6. Chainlink  ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  7. Uniswap  ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  8. Solana  ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  9. Filecoin ( ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)\
  10. Theta Token ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  11. EOS ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  12. Tron ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  13. Monero ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period; just barely)\
  14. Bitcoin SV ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  15. Iota ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  16. Klaytn ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)\
  17. Aave ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  18. Cosmos ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  19. Tezos ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  20. Maker ($LTC beats it over the past 90-day period)
  21. Avalanche [$AVAX] ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  22. Bittorrent ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  23. Algorand ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  24. Compound ($LTC beats it over the past 90-day period)
  25. Thorchain ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  26. Crypto.com ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  27. Dash ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  28. Kusama ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  29. Celsius Network ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  30. Decred ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  31. Chiliz ($LTC beats it over
    the past 30-day period)
  32. Zilliqa ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)
  33. Elrond ($LTC beats it over the past 30 and 90-day periods)
  34. Hedera Hashgraph ($LTC beats it over the past 30-day period)

Observation of Note

For most of the blockchain projects listed above, we can see that Litecoin was able to best its price action over the past 30-days (more often than either just 90-days or both 30 and 90-days, cumulatively).

This signals that Litecoin's pronounced bullish trend has largely been the product of recent price action versus the type of slow roast pop out that we're used to seeing after bulls have been given a series of weeks & months to accumulate the asset in question.

Checking Up on Grayscale

Since this is one of Grayscale's longstanding, premier Trust offerings (i.e., the Litecoin Trust), it felt responsible to take a look at how the Trust's general floating price (on the OTC markets) has fared, comparatively over the past 30-45 days.

Below is a graph from the site bybt.com that shows the current price of LTCN shares as well as their corresponding premium/discount to the NAV:

source:  https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale

At a >1,000%+ premium to the NAV, it appears that interest in the Grayscale Litecoin Trust remains healthy. But this assessment is premature considering the many other metrics that can be referenced to corroborate this assumption.

Price Trajectory of the Grayscale Litecoin Trust

Once again, ycharts has come in clutch for us by providing holistic price data for LTCN (ticker symbol for Grayscale's Litecoin Trust).

As some readers may find interesting, shares in the Trust have appreciated significantly more than the actual floating price of Litecoin since the last week of March 2021.

For reference, Litecoin's price chart is re-published below (showing the total appreciation from March 26th, 2021 to the time of publication,  May 10th, 2021):

As we can see above, the crypto-asset appreciated by +135% over that time span.

However, let's take a look at the total appreciation in the traded price for shares of LTCN (Grayscale Litecoin Trust) over that same time span.

Below is a chart showing the price per share of LTCN on March 30th, 2021:

Below is a chart showing its current trading price (at the time of writing; May 10th, 2021):

As we can see, between March 30th, 2021 to May 10th, 2021, the price per share of LTCN (Grayscale's Litecoin Trust) appreciated by approx. +274%, which is a significant boost compared to the +135% price appreciation we witnessed for the underlying asset on spot traded markets.

Assessing the Change in the Premium/Discount to NAV Over the Same Time Frame (March 30th, 2021 - May 10th, 2021)

Below is LTCN's total premium (vs. NAV) on March 31st, 2021:

As we can see from the chart above, the total premium was hovering around +508.26% on March 30th, 2021

Below is LTCN's total premium (vs. NAV) on May 10th, 2021:

As we can see the premium (to NAV) more than doubled from March 30th, 2021 to May 10th, 2021.

Conclusion - The Chicken or the Egg?

The obvious question one may be inclined to ask at this point is, 'Is the bullish action behind LTCN fueling Litecoin or vice versa?'.

At this point, its hard to determine - especially since it appears that both events (i.e., bullish price action for LTC & LTCN), appear to have initiated themselves at the same time.

What is known, however, is that the trend is still alive and strong at the time of writing (something that traders should definitely take strong note of).

Additionally, it appears that the majority of strength behind this price run for Litecoin has been bottled up within the past 30 days (versus stretched out over a longer period of time). This is worth observing since it could be a major indicator that this is just the beginning of a strong bullish tide for Litecoin for the foreseeable future (coming days / weeks [max. outlook - 3 weeks]).

Tags

cryptomedication

Happy to serve and help wherever I'm needed in the blockchain space. #Education #EthicalContent #BringingLibretotheForefront

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