Rather than give a long exposition here, let's just skip to the important stuff here.
In the chart above, we can see that the RSI(14) for Bitcoin on the daily resolution has been in a steady decline since the beginning of January (2021).
The chart above shows an extraordinary amount of divergence between the indicator and the price itself. That, on top of the fact that this divergence has occurred over a series of months, means that it is only a matter of time before "the other shoe drops" in this situation.
Without being overly speculative here, such a period of divergence could signal an astronomical drop for Bitcoin in the near future.
When we take a look at Grayscale and what's going on over there with their discounted prices and their most recent programmatic sell-offs, viewers will see that this dwindling momentum Bitcoin has been experiencing can be seen in Grayscale's plunging investment Trust prices.
And if you were wondering whether that's bearish or bullish, it is overwhelmingly bearish.
Librehash Reversion Ribbon V2
Our ribbon is looking absurdly bearish on the daily resolution (both short term and longer-ish).
Here are some notable observations:
The ribbon has dipped below the 'zero line' (which is the middle point of the HIstogram.
The histogram is showing slight convergence in some of the latter periods here for Bitcoin, but that is neither here nor there for bulls since the histogram, overall, is still well in the negative (the slower moving average forming one half of the ribbon hast traded above the faster moving average forming the other half)
Today's period (which has not completed) is the only candle over the past 3 periods that is not colored blood red (hopefully you can see the changed colors of these candles on your chart if you have been added to this indicator). This is bad news for bulls as that means that our indicator has detected extreme sell pressure.
Cryptomedication Volatility RSI
This is a momentum indicator that's free for the general public, but still extremely useful for the purposes that we need it for.
Let's check out what reading it gives us below:
Not only is our line headed downward, its also in the red. That means that the volatility is decreasing.
That should be interpreted to mean that Bitcoin's bearish acitivity is beginning to solidify as a trend (which would mean that the trend has shifted from bullish to bearish).
Balance of Power RSI
This one is also down in the dumps at the time of writing (see below):
The Balance of Power RSI shows some heavy sell pressure on pressure (which could be from bulls taking profits from earlier).
Considering the IRS and Taxes
Recently, the IRS introduced an addition to the annual tax return form, called a 1099-K statement
Information on that can be found here: https://www.irs.gov/businesses/understanding-your-form-1099-k
What is a 1099-K Form and How the Hell is This Relevant?
For those that do not know, the below excerpt (from Forbes), should provide some clarity:
Since cryptocurrency is considered to be an asset by the IRS (which they are actively taxing), traders must now consider whether it is in their best interest to realize capital tax gains.
In the United States, there are both short-term and long-term capital tax gains. The classification of capital as either being 'long-term' or 'short-term' is contingent on whether one has owned the asset for more than a year.
Going Straight to the Source: IRS
Per the IRS Website:
"When you sell a capital asset, the difference between the adjusted basis in the asset and the amount you realized from the sale is a capital gain or a capital loss."
We're right around the anniversary of what actual statistics prove was the worst day on the markets ever... (excluding the 1987 Stock Crash since that was just caused by bots going haywire)
Is the bull run over? No. But I would definitely run for cover in the intermediate.
If it turns out that the markets make a sharp recovery from the point that we're at, then we'll just hop on the train and get to it.