Over the past few days, Bitcoin has taken a bit of a tumble from its most recent notched ATH of $57k.
At the time of writing, the price has dropped by over $10,000 (which is probably killing the corporates a hell of a lot more than it is retail investors, assuming that there are any that have elected to invest in Bitcoin given the seemingly limited upside comparatively to to other options on the market).
Bad News For Bulls
It appears that we're going to be in for some days (potentially weeks) of consolidation.
The good news that makes this bittersweet is that the current consolidation that we see in the price is healthy.
Granted, the >20% tumble from the ATH is somewhat of a steep (and volatile) drop, its worth noting that hardly any of those gains were actualized on the weekly candle for this period.
However, that notwithstanding, we were still successful on our last trade idea (per usual; all the credit and glory goes to God).
So let's see if we can remain blessed with the ability to continue read the data that the market provides for us and interpret it properly to develop an adequate forecast.
Evaluating the Weekly Chart Appearance
The most recent two candles on the weekly are really intriguing if you haven't had a chance to take a peak at them yet.
Let's see what it looks like at face value below:
Specifically, we can see:
- The current candle (weekly), has a long body
- There is only wick on it, and that's protruding south
- There is hardly any length to the wick protruding out of the south of its body
- The total delta so far this week (at the time of writing; February 26th, 2021) is approx -18.10%
All of the above facts mean that the bears got a pretty definitive victory this week.
The short wick (only protruding to the south), indicates that the bears have essentially kept all of the ground that they gained. That means that there wasn't enough buy pressure to fight the downward movement or even claw back some of the losses that were sustained.
However, bears did not provoke a 'blow-off top', so its more than likely that the bulls are:
A) Actualizing profits from the most recent run
B) Holding firm to their supply in anticipation of a future run (preventing the price from sinking lower than where it is currently at the time of writing)
Relative Strength Index (Weekly Resolution)
Sticking with the weekly resolution here, there's another negative development (for bulls) that's formed on the weekly resolution.
In the photo above, we can see that the RSI has failed to create a high that was higher than its previous 'peak'
Since we're on a higher time resolution (weekly vs. the usual daily), the time span of the forecasts that we're making here must expand as well.
This doesn't change how we forecast, however. We still estimate that this prospective consolidation period may take a few periods to resolve.
The only difference though is that each period is equivalent to one week vs. just one day (on the daily).
Balance of Power RSI
The BoP RSI essentially provides the same reading that we saw for the RSI.
In the chart above, we can see that the Balance of Power RSI has turned down steeply in step with the price action as well, turning back from the 'extreme' reading that it had maintained for a remarkable 10 total periods.
Remainder of Our Indicators Forecast a Bearish Outlook in the Short-Term
This is true for both the daily and the weekly resolutions.
Therefore, in conclusion, unless there is some extraordinary development in the blockchain sphere that forces us to evaluate Bitcoin in a new light, we should assume that it will remain in a period of consolidation for a little while.
Pack your winter coats, kids!
There will be no R/R on this idea because we're not stupid enough to short anything in a bull market.